Three Horizons, Dissolution, Coherence & Complexity


“Let’s take off the hard hat and put on some gardening gloves. It’s time to get savvy with systems. And the question is this: How should that economic garden be designed?”

I’ve come to think that any economic garden should allow for, encourage and promote three indispensible things: human purpose, factual evidence, and incessant flexibility. I’ve written an article on this, starting with the Three Horizons model of change, exploring and speculating on the deeper characteristics of H1 (the dying old order) and H3 (the emerging new order), introducing the analogy of a young river system to pull it all together, and using Elon Musk as an example of its application in the real world.

It’s about 8,000 words or half an hours reading, and it’s far from everybody’s cup of tea. But then again, not everybody hangs out on the brand new Doughnut Economics discusion forum on Systems Thinking and Complexity! :slight_smile:

So, for what it’s worth, here the link:

P.S. Although most of the article is much more friendly and readable than this snippet, for those who follow these things, here’s what I think may be the most important bit:

In H1 we may be seeing the decline of a natural, historical, evolutionary force expressing itself as ever greater and more diverse complexity (like the Tree of Life). In contrast, the force behind H3, which includes the additional element of our own modern and individual awareness, choice and purpose, expresses itself as ever greater and more unified coherence and convergence. The result is that the new H3 becomes more focused, relevant, useful, powerful and real, while the old H1 becomes the opposite. While evolution selected for survival and reproduction, aware choice selects for goals, values and purpose. And the dynamics of these selection gates produce different results in that evolution works towards diversity while choice works towards singularity.

Like this: